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Early Warnings Economy in Deep Trouble

While President Obama complains he was unaware of the severity of the recession, there were plenty of warnings.  Oliver Blanchard, chief economist for the IMF said in April of 2009, "predictions continue to be glum."  Unemployment rates won't start turning around until the end of 2010, and employment levels very likely will not return to normal rates until 2012 or 2013, he added.

Marco Terrones, deputy division chief in the IMF's research department stated that, whereas an average recession lasts less than one year and recovery takes six quarters before the economy reaches its previous peak, this kind of recession lasts an average of nearly two years and has a recovery time of 3.5 years.

Blanchard projected that "the economy will probably shrink by 1.3 percent, making this the deepest recession since World War II.  Read more.




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